Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.671840 2.210529 2.941558 4.032743 5.668208 8.111425e+00 1.220851e+01
2025-01-05 1.139365 1.714272 2.638962 4.327617 7.567203 1.409562e+01 3.019933e+01
2025-01-12 0.763078 1.261955 2.174473 4.136115 8.808189 2.139664e+01 6.929558e+01
2025-01-19 0.521837 0.928704 1.753314 3.786942 9.676214 3.088188e+01 1.653411e+02
2025-01-26 0.397268 0.759164 1.571416 3.883957 12.224562 5.543774e+01 6.666977e+02
2025-02-02 0.326687 0.670389 1.527066 4.376834 17.680438 1.307083e+02 8.116050e+03
2025-02-09 0.278390 0.611571 1.532143 5.132174 27.695834 4.090382e+02 1.049503e+07
2025-02-16 0.229805 0.532236 1.439149 5.500331 38.897145 1.305839e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.184435 0.443541 1.268112 5.359240 47.425059 3.830829e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.147709 0.365477 1.090837 4.994354 53.516508 1.145225e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.127905 0.329255 1.044543 5.379370 78.169637 1.853150e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.111176 0.296286 0.992714 5.704542 113.359458 4.830989e+08 NaN
2025-03-23 0.097790 0.270855 0.965634 6.318096 190.075600 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.086121 0.246900 0.931628 6.899628 325.737270 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.072957 0.213199 0.830648 6.612891 418.578625 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061352 0.181520 0.722176 6.033144 471.190810 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054328 0.164484 0.680678 6.239353 759.356113 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050073 0.156441 0.683763 7.164193 1851.870520 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.046934 0.151674 0.703940 8.602104 6750.958033 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.042819 0.141552 0.684464 9.333345 20902.432234 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038075 0.127335 0.628893 9.088840 40775.836939 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.033579 0.112982 0.564275 8.412587 57909.680434 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031132 0.106849 0.553674 9.166725 424699.114386 NaN NaN